"With the funds rate close to the zero lower bound," Stehn writes, "a spending based adjustment could not be accompanied by monetary easing unless the Fed decided to adopt another asset purchase program (which we think is highly unlikely)."
That means that even a successful U.S. consolidation could feature a Fed on hold for, all things considered, a decade. If you start back in 2008 and figure it will take our solons in Washington the rest of the year to put together a plan for meaningful reforms, a six-year timeline means we could still be consolidating in 2018. And that assumes something gets done before next year's presidential election. Such optimism!
-Tom
Link: Prepare for a Fed hike -- in 2018 - Street Sweep: Fortune's Wall Street Blog Term Sheet
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